Bitcoin has officially entered a bear market, with its price falling over 20% from its most recent all-time high, signaling growing concerns among traders and investors. Market analyst Timothy Peterson has projected that this downturn could extend for approximately 90 days, which, by historical standards, ranks as a milder bear market when compared to prior cycles.
Peterson noted that out of the last ten significant Bitcoin declines, only four — occurring in 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024 — have been more severe in terms of duration. While current price action suggests bearish sentiment, Peterson remains cautiously optimistic, predicting that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall significantly below the $50,000 mark.
“We’re likely to see further downside in the next 30 days,” Peterson stated, “but this could be followed by a 20-40% rally after April 15 as macroeconomic conditions stabilize and buying interest revives.”
Bitcoin Facing Headwinds from Global Trade War Fears
The downturn in Bitcoin’s price is being compounded by growing concerns over a global trade war. Recent developments, including tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, have triggered retaliatory measures from several major trading partners. This escalating tension has led to a sharp decline in speculative assets as investors shift toward safer options.
Risk-off sentiment is becoming evident across financial markets, and Bitcoin — traditionally viewed as a risk asset during turbulent times — is no exception. The increased uncertainty has deterred new capital inflows, which has put additional pressure on BTC and the broader crypto market.
Glassnode Metrics Reveal Decline in Short-Term Trading Activity
On-chain data is further confirming the fading enthusiasm among short-term Bitcoin holders. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s “Hot Supply” — referring to coins held for seven days or less — has dropped from 5.9% in November 2024 to just 2.3% by March 20, 2025. This sharp decline suggests that fewer traders are engaging in speculative short-term activity.
Analysts argue that this could either signal a cooling-off period before a potential rebound or a deeper phase of market capitulation. “A drop in Hot Supply is typically associated with declining liquidity and risk appetite,” said a Glassnode spokesperson.
Meanwhile, a report from CryptoQuant has highlighted that most retail investors may already be fully allocated in crypto markets. Contrary to hopes that fresh retail interest would trigger a new leg up in prices, CryptoQuant’s data suggests that the current market is heavily reliant on institutional and whale-driven movements.
Ethereum Also Suffers as Bulls Struggle to Defend Key Levels
Bitcoin isn’t alone in facing downward pressure. Ethereum (ETH) has also been caught in the crossfire, shedding over 51% in value in just three months. After peaking above $4,100 on December 16, 2024, ETH is now battling to hold above critical support levels.
Prominent crypto analyst Rekt Capital shared his technical outlook on X (formerly Twitter) on March 19, stating that ETH must reclaim the $2,196 to $3,900 macro range to regain upward momentum. “If price can generate a strong enough reaction here, then #ETH will be able to reclaim the $2,196-$3,900 Macro Range,” he explained.
Despite recent regulatory wins — such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission officially dropping its lawsuit against Ripple — Ethereum’s price has struggled to break free from the broader bearish sentiment affecting the crypto space.
Ether Whales Accumulate as Open Interest Hits Record Highs
Interestingly, amid this pullback, Ether whales appear to be quietly accumulating. Data from Glassnode shows that the number of Ethereum wallets holding at least $100,000 in ETH rose from 70,000 on March 10 to over 75,000 by March 22. This is a notable trend given that in December 2024, when ETH was trading above $4,000, over 146,000 such wallets existed.
Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard observed that wallet addresses in the 10,000 to 100,000 ETH range have been steadily increasing their positions. This accumulation trend could signal that larger players are preparing for a potential rebound, especially as open interest in Ether futures reached an all-time high on March 21.
“These whales are positioning for a breakout above $2,400,” Sondergaard commented. “While smaller retail investors are reducing exposure, larger entities are quietly building positions at key support levels.”
Market Outlook: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Optimism
While volatility and uncertainty remain dominant themes in the crypto markets, some analysts are maintaining a bullish long-term outlook. According to VanEck, a leading asset management firm, the ongoing correction is unlikely to derail Bitcoin and Ethereum’s broader uptrend in the coming year.
VanEck has projected a $6,000 cycle top for ETH and a $180,000 high for BTC by 2025, underlining the belief that current macroeconomic pressures will eventually subside. However, in the short term, many traders and analysts are bracing for more downside or, at best, sideways movement.
What’s Next for Crypto Investors?
For traders and long-term investors alike, the coming weeks could prove pivotal. With Bitcoin eyeing critical support at the $50,000 level and Ethereum struggling near the $2,200 mark, market participants will closely monitor whale activity, trade war developments, and broader macroeconomic indicators.
If Peterson’s prediction holds, the market could see a turnaround post-April 15, with Bitcoin potentially rebounding as much as 40% from its recent lows. However, the path to recovery will likely depend on whether global economic tensions ease and institutional players continue to accumulate during this bearish phase.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin’s bear market could last 90 days, but may avoid sinking far below $50,000.
- Global trade war concerns are weighing heavily on crypto markets.
- Short-term trading activity is declining, according to Glassnode metrics.
- Ethereum has lost over 50% in value but shows signs of whale accumulation.
- VanEck projects bullish long-term price targets for both BTC and ETH in 2025.
For now, the crypto community remains on edge, awaiting signs of either further capitulation or a surprise rebound.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing in Cryptocurrencies.
