EUR/USD Forecast – June 3, 2025
The EUR/USD currency pair is maintaining its upward trajectory as it consolidates above a key technical level of 1.1405, fueled by weaker U.S. dollar sentiment and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish monetary stance. As market participants anticipate key macroeconomic events, EUR/USD traders are closely watching for continuation toward 1.1470 and 1.1500.
🔹 Intraday Technical Analysis
- Pivot Level: 1.1405
- Bias: Bullish Above Pivot
- Immediate Resistance Levels: 1.1470 and 1.1500
- Support Levels: 1.1380 and 1.1355
🔸 Preferred Scenario
Long positions are favored as long as the pair trades above 1.1405, targeting 1.1470 initially and extending to 1.1500 should upside momentum persist.
🔸 Alternative Scenario
A break below 1.1405 could shift intraday sentiment to bearish, exposing downside risks toward 1.1380 and possibly 1.1355.
Market Context and Drivers
1. Dollar Weakness Persists
The U.S. Dollar Index has retreated after mixed macroeconomic data and dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials. This has opened a favorable environment for the euro to gain traction.
2. Fed Policy Outlook
Expectations of a pause or rate cuts by the Fed have increased as inflation shows signs of cooling. This policy divergence between the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB), which remains cautious but less dovish, supports EUR/USD upside.
3. Technical Base Forming
The 1.1405 level has proven to be a solid support base over the past sessions. Holding above this pivot strengthens the likelihood of a bullish extension toward multi-week highs.
Chart Outlook: EUR/USD Targets 1.1500
- RSI: Trending above 50, suggesting bullish momentum.
- MACD: Displays a fresh bullish crossover.
- Support Trendline: Rising, confirming higher lows on the hourly chart.
Future Trends and Outlook for EUR/USD
Looking forward into mid-2025, traders should monitor the following trends:
✅ 1. Fed vs ECB Divergence
If the Fed begins to cut rates while the ECB maintains its current stance or even hikes, EUR/USD could head toward 1.1600 or higher.
✅ 2. Eurozone Inflation Stabilization
Lower energy prices and a strong euro could tame inflation, giving the ECB room for flexibility while avoiding recession.
✅ 3. Global Risk Sentiment
Increased demand for risk assets benefits the euro over the dollar, especially if geopolitical tensions ease.
Summary Table – Key EUR/USD Levels
| Level | Description |
|---|---|
| 1.1355 | Lower Support Target |
| 1.1380 | Initial Support Level |
| 1.1405 | Pivot (Key Intraday Level) |
| 1.1470 | First Bullish Target |
| 1.1500 | Next Resistance Extension |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What is the forecast for EUR/USD today?
EUR/USD is expected to rise as long as it holds above 1.1405. Immediate targets are 1.1470 and 1.1500.
Why is the euro gaining strength?
The euro is gaining strength due to a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of a more dovish Fed.
What is the next resistance for EUR/USD?
The next resistance levels are 1.1470 and 1.1500.
What happens if EUR/USD breaks below 1.1405?
If the pair breaks below 1.1405, downside targets include 1.1380 and 1.1355.
Is EUR/USD a good trade today?
Yes, technicals suggest a bullish bias with clear upside targets above 1.1405.
How does Fed policy affect EUR/USD?
A dovish Fed tends to weaken the dollar, boosting EUR/USD. Conversely, hawkish Fed policy could pressure the pair.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Forex trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making trading decisions.
