Intraday Crude Oil Analysis – June 11, 2025
The Crude Oil (WTI) market is exhibiting notable bearish pressure as we head into June 11, 2025. After failing to sustain a break above the $65.40 pivot level, technical indicators now signal downside momentum may intensify.
Pivot Point: $65.40
Current Trend: Bearish
📌 Our Trading Preference
Sell (Short) Positions Below $65.40, targeting:
- 🎯 First Target: $64.20
- 🎯 Second Target: $63.70 (extended move)
The price action remains weak below the $65.40 resistance line, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipping below 50, signaling momentum favors the bears.
Alternative Scenario
Buy (Long) Positions Above $65.40, targeting:
- 📈 First Target: $65.85
- 📈 Second Target: $66.25
Only a strong breakout and sustained close above $65.40 would invalidate the bearish structure and suggest a possible rebound toward the upper resistance levels.
Technical Analysis Commentary
The RSI has shifted into bearish territory, suggesting selling momentum is increasing. Additionally, the failure to sustain any bullish extension above $65.85 in recent sessions shows a lack of buying conviction.
Key Observations:
- Price is trading below its 20-period moving average (bearish).
- RSI < 50 confirms weakening demand.
- Recent candles show lower highs and lower lows — a classic sign of bearish continuation.
Fundamental Drivers to Watch
Several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are influencing crude oil price action:
- OPEC+ Output Signals: The group’s lack of clarity on production quotas has added volatility.
- U.S. Inventory Data: A surprise build in crude stockpiles from the EIA could increase pressure.
- Global Demand Concerns: Slower-than-expected demand recovery from major economies like China is casting doubt on future price strength.
- Stronger U.S. Dollar: A resilient USD makes dollar-denominated commodities like crude more expensive globally.
These factors compound the bearish technical setup, amplifying risk to the downside.
Technical Levels to Watch
| Level | Zone Type | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| $66.25 | Upper Resistance | Bullish (Breakout Target) |
| $65.85 | Resistance | Mild Bullish |
| $65.40 | Pivot / Trigger | Neutral |
| $64.20 | Support Zone | Bearish Target |
| $63.70 | Key Support | Extended Bearish Target |
🛠️ Recommended Strategy – June 11, 2025
Given the bearish outlook and the failed breakout above $65.40, traders may consider the following intraday strategy:
- Sell below $65.40, aiming for $64.20 initially.
- Trail stop-loss to entry if price falls below $64.50.
- Consider exiting or tightening stops near $63.70.
Risk Management Tip: Keep stops tight around $65.60 in case of unexpected bullish reversal due to news or inventory data.
📈 Chart Patterns to Monitor
- Descending Triangle: Forming on the 1-hour chart, signaling bearish continuation.
- Bearish Divergence: RSI divergence noted on 4-hour chart – price forming higher highs while RSI forms lower highs previously (now confirming breakdown).
- Key Rejection Candles: Several upper wicks near $65.40 show failed bullish attempts.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
🔹 Is crude oil in a downtrend?
Yes, based on both RSI and recent price action, crude oil (WTI) shows signs of a short-term downtrend, particularly below $65.40.
🔹 What are today’s support and resistance levels?
- Support: $64.20 and $63.70
- Resistance: $65.40 and $66.25
🔹 Should I sell crude oil now?
Short positions are favorable below $65.40 based on the current technical analysis. However, always apply proper risk management and consider external events.
🔹 How does the RSI impact oil prices?
A bearish RSI (< 50) indicates selling momentum is building. For crude oil, this supports a potential drop if no strong buying pressure re-emerges.
🔹 What can reverse the current trend?
- A surprise draw in U.S. crude inventories
- Bullish OPEC+ supply announcements
- Weakening U.S. dollar
🔹 What timeframe is this analysis based on?
The analysis is based on intraday (short-term) price action using 1-hour and 4-hour charts.
🔹 Can crude oil rebound above $66?
Yes, but only if it breaks and sustains above $65.40 first, targeting $65.85 and $66.25.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading crude oil and other commodities involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
