Crude Oil Market Overview – June 12, 2025
As we enter the mid-week session, WTI crude oil is trading under pressure with consolidation patterns dominating short-term charts. After a recent attempt to break above the $68.60 pivot level, bearish sentiment has started to surface again. Technical indicators suggest that crude oil may be gearing up for a potential leg down if key support levels fail to hold.
Let’s dive into today’s intraday forecast and technical landscape for WTI crude oil.
🔧 Intraday Technical Outlook
- Pivot Point: $68.60
- Preferred Strategy:
→ Short positions below $68.60
→ Targets: $67.20 and $66.30 - Alternative Scenario:
→ If the price breaks above $68.60, expect upside toward $69.25 and $69.70 - RSI Comment:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is leaning bearish, suggesting further downside potential.
Chart Analysis and RSI Signal
The RSI indicator has dropped below the 50-neutral mark and is gradually tilting toward bearish territory. This momentum shift reflects a weakening buying trend and opens the door for sellers to regain control.
Price is currently hovering just below the $68.60 pivot resistance, a critical level that has repeatedly rejected upward momentum. If this level holds as resistance, it could catalyze a sell-off toward the $67.20 level — the first major support on today’s chart.
🔽 Bearish Case: Breakdown Below $68.60
If WTI crude oil fails to hold above the pivot level of $68.60, downside targets include:
- First Support: $67.20
- Secondary Support: $66.30
In this scenario, market sentiment is likely driven by macroeconomic data indicating weaker demand or an increase in U.S. crude inventory levels.
🔼 Bullish Case: Break Above $68.60
Should prices close decisively above the $68.60 pivot, short-term bullish momentum may target:
- First Resistance: $69.25
- Next Resistance: $69.70
A break of this range could attract momentum buyers and day traders seeking quick upside gains. However, RSI levels and volume confirmation are essential before committing to long positions.
Macroeconomic Factors Driving Oil Prices Today
Crude oil prices on June 12 are influenced by the following key factors:
- OPEC+ Production Talks
Market participants are watching for updates on OPEC+ output decisions that could tighten or loosen global supply. - U.S. Inventory Reports
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release crude inventory data later today. A larger-than-expected build could pressure prices lower. - Global Demand Outlook
Renewed economic concerns in China and mixed data from the Eurozone are adding volatility to the demand-side outlook. - Geopolitical Risks
Tensions in oil-producing regions remain a wildcard factor capable of triggering abrupt price movements.
Trade Ideas for Today
Idea 1: Short Below $68.60
- Entry: $68.50
- Stop Loss: $69.10
- Take Profit 1: $67.20
- Take Profit 2: $66.30
- Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:2.5
Idea 2: Long Above $68.60 (Only on Breakout Confirmation)
- Entry: $68.70
- Stop Loss: $68.10
- Take Profit 1: $69.25
- Take Profit 2: $69.70
- Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:2
WTI Price Levels to Watch
| Key Level | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| $69.70 | Resistance | Major breakout zone |
| $69.25 | Resistance | Short-term profit target |
| $68.60 | Pivot | Intraday sentiment shift |
| $67.20 | Support | Bearish breakdown target |
| $66.30 | Support | Key defensive zone |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the pivot level for crude oil on June 12, 2025?
A1: The pivot point is $68.60. This level is critical for determining intraday trend direction.
Q2: Is crude oil bullish or bearish today?
A2: The outlook is bearish below $68.60. If prices remain under this level, further downside is likely.
Q3: What does the RSI indicate for crude oil?
A3: The RSI is leaning bearish, which implies that the current momentum favors sellers.
Q4: What are the key support levels today?
A4: Important support levels are $67.20 and $66.30.
Q5: What are the main resistance levels to watch?
A5: Watch $69.25 and $69.70 if the price breaks above the pivot.
Q6: What could cause oil prices to rise today?
A6: A bullish breakout, strong U.S. economic data, or OPEC+ supply cuts could push prices higher.
Q7: Should I enter a long or short position?
A7: The preferred strategy is short below $68.60 unless there’s a strong breakout with volume.
Q8: What time is the EIA inventory report today?
A8: Typically, the EIA report is released at 10:30 AM EST.
Q9: How can geopolitical events affect oil today?
A9: Any unrest in the Middle East or disruptions to supply chains can trigger price spikes.
Q10: Is crude oil in a consolidation phase?
A10: Yes, prices are currently consolidating around the $68.00–$69.00 zone.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
