Crude Oil Price Forecast – July 4 2025
As we head into the first week of July, crude oil markets are showing signs of caution. The WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil is currently trading near key resistance levels, sparking debates among traders over whether a bullish breakout is around the corner or if a pullback is imminent.
Let’s break down the Crude Oil (WTI) Intraday Forecast for July 4, 2025, covering key levels, market sentiment, RSI signals, and strategic trading options.
Current Technical Setup
- Pivot Point: $66.70
- Support Levels: $66.40 and $65.90
- Resistance Targets: $67.25 and $67.55
The technical landscape is indicating neutral to mildly bullish conditions. Crude oil is hovering just above its pivot point at $66.70. A move above this level may trigger a short-term rally toward the upper resistance at $67.55.
Preferred Trading Strategy
Long Positions Above $66.70
If the price remains above $66.70, traders may consider going long with targets at:
- $67.25 (near-term resistance)
- $67.55 (extension target)
This strategy is supported by stabilization signals from RSI and trend indicators that suggest a possible upside in the short term.
Alternative Bearish Scenario
Short Positions Below $66.70
If crude oil slips below the pivot, the downside could resume with key targets at:
- $66.40
- $65.90
The RSI currently appears mixed, indicating uncertainty and potential choppiness. If bearish momentum strengthens, the price may retrace toward recent lows.
RSI Analysis – A Mixed Signal
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neither overbought nor oversold, currently sitting near the neutral 50% line. This implies a lack of clear momentum, often signaling that a significant price movement could be near. Traders should watch for RSI divergence or a breakout confirmation before executing aggressive entries.
Key Market Drivers on July 4, 2025
- US Inventory Data
Recent EIA (Energy Information Administration) reports have shown fluctuating inventory levels, creating volatility in oil prices. - Geopolitical Tensions
Middle East developments and OPEC+ production talks continue to influence crude supply sentiment. - Global Demand Outlook
Summer travel demand, refinery activity, and macroeconomic data from the US and China are all factors impacting crude oil momentum.
What Traders Should Watch Next
- Breakout above $67.55: Could signal continuation of bullish momentum
- Failure to hold $66.70: May invite short-term selling pressure
- News catalysts: Watch for US economic data, global growth signals, and central bank commentary
Historical Context: Oil in Early July
Historically, early July tends to bring moderate bullish seasonality in oil markets due to increased summer demand. However, macroeconomic uncertainty often tempers this pattern.
Summary Table: Crude Oil Intraday Forecast – July 4, 2025
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Pivot Point | $66.70 |
| Long Entry | Above $66.70 |
| Long Targets | $67.25, $67.55 |
| Short Entry | Below $66.70 |
| Short Targets | $66.40, $65.90 |
| RSI | Mixed (≈50%) |
| Technical Bias | Cautiously Bullish |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the pivot point for crude oil on July 4, 2025?
A: The pivot point is $66.70, which serves as the key level for intraday direction.
Q2: Should I go long or short on crude oil today?
A: Long positions are favored above $66.70, while short trades are viable below this level. Always confirm with RSI and other indicators.
Q3: What are the upside targets for WTI crude oil today?
A: If bullish momentum persists, the targets are $67.25 and $67.55.
Q4: What technical indicators are supporting this analysis?
A: Pivot points, RSI, and recent price action structure.
Q5: How reliable is this crude oil price forecast?
A: It’s based on technical analysis and current market conditions. Traders should combine this with fundamental insights and risk management.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading crude oil or any commodity involves significant risk. Always perform your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
