EUR/USD Price Outlook – July 4 2025
The EUR/USD pair is expected to rebound on July 4, 2025, as market sentiment shows early signs of strength. With the pivot level set at 1.1740, buyers are stepping in, looking for opportunities above this support zone.
Let’s delve deeper into today’s EUR/USD intraday forecast and the technical outlook driving trading decisions.
Current Technical Setup
- Pivot Point: 1.1740
- RSI Indicator: Suggests bullish momentum
- Trend Bias: Short-term rebound
Trading Strategy for July 4, 2025
Our Preference:
Long positions above 1.1740, targeting 1.1790 and 1.1810 in extension.
Alternative Scenario:
If the price falls below 1.1740, expect further downside towards 1.1720 and 1.1700.
Technical Indicators Breakdown
📌 Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI is currently rising from oversold territory, indicating that buying pressure is starting to build. It aligns with the pivot level to confirm the probability of a rebound.
🔹 Support & Resistance Levels:
| Level Type | Price |
|---|---|
| Immediate Support | 1.1740 |
| Next Support | 1.1720 |
| Critical Support | 1.1700 |
| Immediate Resistance | 1.1790 |
| Major Resistance | 1.1810 |
Why the Rebound May Continue
- Oversold RSI: Suggests potential price bounce.
- Strong Pivot Zone: 1.1740 has acted as a reliable support level historically.
- Macro Sentiment: Market watchers are optimistic as U.S. economic data weighs on the dollar.
Fundamental Context
The EUR/USD pair is often influenced by macroeconomic indicators from both the Eurozone and the U.S. Key factors to watch include:
- U.S. Job Data: A softer labor market can pressure the USD.
- ECB Commentary: Hawkish or dovish tones from the ECB may sway euro strength.
- Inflation Trends: CPI and PPI data from both regions remain crucial.
Intraday Forecast Summary
- Bullish Bias: As long as EUR/USD trades above 1.1740
- Upside Targets: 1.1790, 1.1810
- Bearish Breakout Trigger: Below 1.1740
- Downside Targets: 1.1720, 1.1700
Pro Tips for Traders
- Use a trailing stop once EUR/USD breaks 1.1790 to protect gains.
- Monitor U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Data if scheduled — could impact volatility.
- Look for confirmation on hourly and 4H candles to reduce false signals.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: Is the EUR/USD expected to go up on July 4, 2025?
Yes, current technical signals suggest a bullish rebound above 1.1740 with a target toward 1.1810.
Q2: What is the pivot level for EUR/USD today?
The pivot level is 1.1740. This is a key level for determining short-term direction.
Q3: What are the bullish targets for EUR/USD?
If momentum holds, traders should aim for 1.1790 and 1.1810.
Q4: What happens if EUR/USD falls below 1.1740?
A breakdown below 1.1740 could send the pair to 1.1720 and then 1.1700.
Q5: How reliable is the RSI in this setup?
The RSI is indicating bullish divergence and supports the potential for an upside move.
Q6: Can this setup work for swing traders?
This is primarily an intraday outlook, but swing traders may use similar zones for larger timeframes.
Q7: Should traders wait for confirmation before entering?
Yes, it’s best to wait for a bullish candle close above 1.1740 before initiating long positions.
Q8: How volatile is EUR/USD expected to be today?
Expect moderate volatility ahead of U.S. economic data releases and European market reactions.
Disclaimer
This forecast is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading forex involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
