Crude Oil Price Forecast – July 7 2025
WTI crude oil is showing mounting bearish momentum today, failing to hold above the pivotal $66.50 level. With the pivot now acting as overhead resistance, our bias leans toward a downward extension toward the $65.25–$64.70 zone.
Intraday Technical Summary
- Pivot Level: $66.50
- Preferred Bias: Short positions below $66.50
- Target 1: $65.25
- Target 2: $64.70
- Alternative Bullish Setup:
- Long above $66.50
- Target 1: $67.10
- Target 2: $67.55
- Long above $66.50
- Momentum Indicator: RSI is mixed to bearish, preventing upside continuation
Technical Drivers Behind the Bias
Crude has repeatedly failed to rise above $66.50, confirming this pivot as strong resistance. The RSI remains under pressure, hovering near the 50 line—a signal that bullish strength is waning.
Chart patterns show lower highs and a potential descending channel forming, reinforcing expectations of further downside movement unless bulls reclaim $66.50.
Suggested Trade Strategy for July 7
🔻 Bearish Setup (Preferred):
- Entry: Short below $66.50
- Targets: $65.25 and $64.70
- Stop Loss: Above $66.70, just above resistance
- Catalyst: RSI below 50, failed retests of pivot
🔺 Bullish Setup (Alternative):
- Entry: Long above $66.50
- Targets: $67.10 and $67.55
- Stop Loss: Below $66.25
- Trigger: Strong reversal candle, rising RSI
Macro & Market Context
- U.S. Inventory Reports: Mixed builds have kept price under pressure
- Demand Concerns: Soft global data continues to weigh on outlook
- OPEC+ Signals: No imminent production cuts announced, adding bearish pressure
- Dollar Dynamics: A modestly firmer USD makes oil less attractive, compounding the downtrend
Key Levels at a Glance
| Level Type | Price | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 66.50 | Intraday pivot now acting as ceiling |
| Resistance | 67.10 | Higher if bulls reclaim momentum |
| Resistance | 67.55 | Bullish extension target |
| Support | 65.25 | First significant downside level |
| Support | 64.70 | Extended bearish scenario |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. Why is $66.50 so important?
It’s the pivot point that today’s session is pivoting around—resistance if price stays below, support if reclaimed.
2. Should I go short on oil today?
If crude remains under $66.50 and RSI stays weak, short trades toward $65.25 make technical sense. Use prudent stops.
3. What could spark a reversal?
A breakout above $66.50 with strong bullish candles and rising RSI would qualify; look for a close above this level.
4. How does the RSI impact oil trading today?
RSI below 50 indicates faltering bullish momentum. Confirmation above 50 would be needed to support any reversal.
5. Will U.S. inventories influence today’s price?
Yes—any surprise build or draw from the EIA could trigger sharp intraday moves.
6. How does the global demand outlook affect crude?
Slowing economic data globally reduces consumption expectations, adding bearish pressure.
7. Is this forecast only intraday?
Yes—it’s focused on today’s movements. For longer-term views, refer to broader macroeconomic and OPEC dynamics.
8. How much risk should I use?
Use tight stops (e.g., above $66.70 or below entry). Keep position sizes small due to volatility.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Trading crude oil carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trade.
