Crude Oil Price Forecast – July 3 2025
Crude oil prices remain in focus as markets evaluate whether West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will maintain its bullish stance above the key pivot level of $66.40. As of July 3, 2025, technical indicators suggest that WTI crude could attempt a continued rally — provided the $66.40 support zone remains intact.
🔍 Current Intraday Outlook:
- Pivot Point: $66.40
- Preferred Strategy: Long positions above $66.40 with targets at $67.85 and $68.50
- Alternative Scenario: Below $66.40, the outlook turns bearish with downside targets at $65.90 and $65.25
- Technical Comment: Momentum indicators like RSI suggest further upside as long as the price remains above support.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
As of July 3, 2025, crude oil is trading within a critical technical range. The $66.40 level acts as an intraday pivot — a break below this level may shift market sentiment to bearish.
Resistance Levels:
- $67.85: First significant upside target
- $68.50: Strong resistance, aligning with recent highs
Support Levels:
- $66.40: Pivot level that must hold for bulls to stay in control
- $65.90: Near-term support
- $65.25: Deeper downside if momentum weakens
Trade Ideas for July 3, 2025
If you’re trading intraday or short-term swing positions, consider these approaches:
✅ Bullish Setup (Above $66.40):
- Entry: $66.45 – $66.50
- Targets: $67.85, then $68.50
- Stop Loss: $66.00
❌ Bearish Setup (Below $66.40):
- Entry: $66.30 – $66.35
- Targets: $65.90, then $65.25
- Stop Loss: $66.70
Market Sentiment & RSI Insight
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains in neutral-to-positive territory, currently hovering near the 52–55 range. This suggests mild bullish momentum without overbought conditions, leaving room for further upward movement if resistance levels break.
Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Oil
Several global and domestic factors are contributing to WTI’s price action:
- OPEC+ Output Policy: Any new cuts or production caps will influence supply levels.
- U.S. Crude Inventories: Weekly inventory data from EIA can create volatility.
- Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions in the Middle East or supply disruptions may spike prices.
- Demand Forecasts: Seasonal fuel demand and global economic activity affect broader trends.
Chart Patterns to Watch
Technical traders may observe the following:
- Ascending Triangle: Potential bullish continuation if price stays above $66.40
- Bull Flag Pattern: Suggests a possible breakout toward $68.50
- Volume Analysis: A spike in volume above $67.00 may confirm bullish continuation
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
❓ What is the key support level for crude oil on July 3, 2025?
The critical intraday support level is $66.40. If crude stays above it, bullish momentum is likely.
❓ What are the upside targets if crude oil holds above $66.40?
If support holds, upside targets include $67.85 and $68.50.
❓ What happens if crude oil falls below $66.40?
A drop below $66.40 could initiate a downward move toward $65.90 and possibly $65.25.
❓ Is now a good time to buy crude oil?
From a technical perspective, buying above $66.40 with tight risk management could be favorable. However, always consider market conditions and risk tolerance.
❓ How does RSI affect crude oil price forecasting?
RSI helps identify overbought or oversold conditions. As of now, the RSI shows mild bullish strength without overextension.
❓ What fundamental factors affect crude oil prices today?
Global supply-demand balance, OPEC+ policy, geopolitical tensions, and U.S. inventory reports are key influences.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading commodities involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions.
