Crude Oil Price Forecast – June 23, 2025
WTI crude oil enters the trading week under pressure as price action remains consolidated below key resistance at $76.20. This pivot level will likely determine whether bulls regain control or sellers take over. With the RSI currently flattening, traders should prepare for choppy price movement, but stay alert for a breakout trigger.
📍 Pivot Level: $76.20
🟡 Our Preference:
Short positions below $76.20, targeting:
- First target: $74.30
- Second target: $73.10 (in extension)
🟢 Alternative Scenario:
If price breaks and closes above $76.20, expect:
- Upside continuation to $77.20
- Potential stretch to $78.40
💬 Comment:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around its neutral zone (50%), suggesting low momentum. As long as $76.20 acts as resistance, the market could lean bearish or trade sideways. A clean breakout above this level would invalidate short setups.
Technical Indicators – June 23, 2025
Indicator | Reading | Bias |
---|---|---|
RSI (14) | ~50 | Neutral |
20 EMA | Below Pivot | Bearish |
MACD | Flat | Neutral |
Volume Trend | Declining | Caution |
Price Forecast Summary
- Bearish Bias as long as WTI stays below $76.20
- Support zones: $74.30 and $73.10
- Resistance zones: $76.20, $77.20, and $78.40
- Outlook: Consolidation phase; watch for breakout confirmation
Trading Insights & Strategy
- Consider selling rallies near $76.00 with tight stops above $76.20
- For breakout traders, wait for confirmation above $76.20 with increased volume
- Use volume and RSI divergence to filter false breakouts
Broader Market Impact
Crude oil prices remain sensitive to:
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions
- U.S. inventory data
- OPEC+ production decisions
- Global demand expectations
These factors could amplify the move once WTI exits its current consolidation zone.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: Why is $76.20 considered a key resistance level?
A1: It’s a historical pivot where sellers have stepped in, and the price has failed to close above it recently.
Q2: What confirms a breakout above $76.20?
A2: A strong daily candle close above $76.20 with volume and bullish momentum from RSI above 60.
Q3: Should I go long or short now?
A3: If the price remains under $76.20, the preference is short. Wait for confirmation if planning a long.
Q4: How does RSI help in trading crude oil?
A4: RSI helps spot overbought or oversold conditions, as well as momentum strength. Neutral RSI = consolidation.
Q5: What time frame is this analysis based on?
A5: This is an intraday forecast, mostly based on 1H and 4H charts with daily levels in context.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Trading commodities and CFDs carries high risk. Always consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.