EUR/USD Faces Downward Pressure on June 16, 2025
The EUR/USD pair begins the week on a bearish note as prices drift below the key 1.1570 pivot level. After a brief attempt at recovery during the previous session, downward momentum has resumed amid mixed macroeconomic cues from both the Eurozone and the U.S.
Technical signals such as a weakening RSI and strong resistance near the 1.1570 zone suggest further downside may be imminent. Let’s explore today’s trading outlook with pivot strategy, RSI interpretation, and actionable trade setups.
Intraday Technical Setup: EUR/USD
- Pivot Point: 1.1570
- RSI Outlook: Bearish with a tilt below 50
Preferred Scenario: Short Positions
- Entry: Below 1.1570
- Target 1: 1.1490
- Target 2: 1.1470
Alternative Scenario: Long Positions
- Entry: Above 1.1570
- Target 1: 1.1600
- Target 2: 1.1630
RSI and Momentum Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently below the 50-neutral threshold, indicating increased selling momentum. The lack of a strong reversal pattern and recent failed retests of resistance levels hint that sellers remain in control.
If the pair remains suppressed under the 1.1570 pivot, traders could see a slide toward the 1.1490 region. Only a decisive break and close above 1.1570 would negate the bearish outlook.
Key Technical Levels
Support Zones:
- Immediate Support: 1.1490
- Extended Support: 1.1470
Resistance Levels:
- Initial Resistance: 1.1570 (pivot)
- Next Hurdles: 1.1600 and 1.1630
The 1.1570 pivot serves as a technical inflection point. A break above it would allow bulls to re-enter the market with short-term upside, while a rejection reinforces the bearish bias.
Price Action and Candlestick Overview
- Recent price structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a downtrend.
- Bearish engulfing patterns seen near resistance levels indicate seller dominance.
- Price remains under 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 4H chart.
Fundamental Drivers Impacting EUR/USD Today
- Eurozone Economic Data: Weak retail sales and falling industrial output weigh on the euro.
- U.S. Dollar Strength: Hawkish Fed commentary and strong U.S. economic data boost the greenback.
- Interest Rate Divergence: A more aggressive Fed compared to a dovish ECB adds pressure on EUR/USD.
- Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainties around EU-U.S. trade relations and global tensions add volatility.
Trading Strategy and Tips for June 16, 2025
- Watch RSI Behavior: RSI breaching below 45 could confirm a sharper selloff.
- Use Trailing Stop-Loss: Start with 1.1525 and trail as price moves toward 1.1490.
- Look for Breakout Confirmation: Wait for a solid close below 1.1500 on hourly chart before scaling in.
- Avoid Fakeouts: Use volume indicators and price action confirmation to avoid premature entries.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the key pivot level for EUR/USD today?
A1: The intraday pivot point is 1.1570.
Q2: Is EUR/USD bullish or bearish on June 16, 2025?
A2: The pair is currently bearish below the 1.1570 pivot level.
Q3: What are the downside targets?
A3: 1.1490 and 1.1470 are the main bearish targets.
Q4: What is the RSI indicating for EUR/USD?
A4: RSI below 50 signals bearish momentum.
Q5: What would invalidate the bearish scenario?
A5: A break above 1.1570, followed by strong bullish candles, could signal reversal.
Q6: What economic events should traders watch today?
A6: Eurozone CPI, U.S. industrial production, and Fed member speeches.
Q7: Is it safe to short EUR/USD today?
A7: Shorting below 1.1570 with risk-managed stop-loss can be considered based on technical bias.
Q8: What is the best chart timeframe for intraday analysis?
A8: 1-hour and 4-hour charts offer clearer trend visibility and RSI momentum cues.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex involves significant risk and may result in loss of capital. Always conduct your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
