EUR/USD Technical Forecast – June 18, 2025
EUR/USD is facing renewed selling pressure as it struggles below a significant resistance level at 1.1530. Traders should prepare for choppy movement with a bearish bias unless the pair breaks and holds above this pivot. The RSI and market structure suggest caution with a preference for short setups.
Let’s break down today’s key levels, trading strategies, and technical insights.
Intraday Outlook: EUR/USD
- Pivot Point: 1.1530
- RSI Status: Neutral to bearish, favoring sellers below resistance
Preferred Scenario – Bearish Outlook:
- Sell Below: 1.1530
- Target 1: 1.1450
- Target 2: 1.1420
Alternative Scenario – Bullish Reversal:
- Buy Above: 1.1530
- Target 1: 1.1560
- Target 2: 1.1590
RSI and Price Momentum Analysis
The RSI hovers near its neutral zone, hinting at indecision in the short term. However, the indicator leans bearish below the 50 mark, especially with repeated failure to break above 1.1530. If RSI dips below 45, sellers may gain momentum.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: 1.1530 (Pivot)
- Secondary Resistance: 1.1560
- Major Resistance: 1.1590
Support Levels:
- First Support: 1.1450
- Next Support: 1.1420
Chart Structure & Price Behavior
- EUR/USD is forming a consolidation pattern under resistance, suggesting indecisiveness.
- A breakdown below 1.1450 could intensify bearish pressure and trigger a move toward 1.1420.
- Bulls must regain control above 1.1530 to shift momentum to the upside.
Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Drivers
- U.S. Dollar Strength: Renewed dollar demand on hawkish Fed outlook continues to weigh on the euro.
- Eurozone Inflation Concerns: Weak inflation prints have limited euro upside potential.
- Rate Expectations: Diverging monetary policies between the ECB and Fed are keeping EUR/USD capped.
- Geopolitical Stability: Global tensions and risk-off sentiment have further strengthened the USD.
Trading Strategies for EUR/USD – June 18, 2025
- Watch for Rejections at 1.1530: Look for bearish candlestick confirmations near resistance.
- Set Tight Stops: Consider stops above 1.1565 if entering short positions.
- Confirm With RSI and Trendlines: Look for RSI <50 and descending trendline resistance.
- Avoid Overtrading: With choppy action expected, wait for confirmed breakouts or rejections.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is today’s pivot point for EUR/USD?
A1: The pivot point is 1.1530.
Q2: What is the current trend for EUR/USD?
A2: The trend is sideways to bearish below the 1.1530 resistance.
Q3: What are the main resistance levels to watch?
A3: 1.1530, 1.1560, and 1.1590.
Q4: Where can support be found if the pair drops?
A4: Support lies at 1.1450 and 1.1420.
Q5: What does RSI indicate today?
A5: RSI is neutral to bearish, signaling caution and potential downside.
Q6: What are the risks for long positions?
A6: Failure to break 1.1530 could trap buyers in choppy action.
Q7: Can this forecast be used for intraday trades?
A7: Yes, this setup is best suited for intraday and short-term swing trades.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or trading recommendations. Trading forex involves significant risk. Always consult with a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions.
