EUR/USD Price Forecast July 1 2025
As we step into the second half of 2025, the EUR/USD currency pair maintains a strong bullish structure. The recent breakout above the critical pivot level of 1.1750 has opened the door for further upside toward 1.1820 and potentially 1.1850, supported by momentum indicators and improving eurozone sentiment.
In this detailed forecast, we’ll dissect the latest technical setup, explore key price levels, evaluate trading opportunities, and provide comprehensive insights to help you trade the EUR/USD pair with clarity and precision.
Quick Overview
- Instrument: EUR/USD
- Direction: Bullish above 1.1750
- Pivot Point: 1.1750
- Preferred Strategy: Long above 1.1750
- Upside Targets: 1.1820 & 1.1850
- Bearish Scenario: Below 1.1750
- Downside Targets: 1.1730 & 1.1710
- Technical Insight: RSI supports upside; breakout confirmed
Technical Analysis: Euro Strength Continues
The EUR/USD pair broke above a strong technical barrier at 1.1750, confirming a bullish reversal pattern. Price is now comfortably trading above short-term moving averages and maintaining strong momentum. The RSI, which measures market strength, is currently trending higher—supporting further upside.
✅ Bullish Scenario (Our Preference)
- Entry Zone: Long positions above 1.1750
- Target 1: 1.1820
- Target 2: 1.1850
- Stop-Loss: 1.1735
- Risk/Reward Ratio: 2:1 or better
The bullish case is strong as long as the pair stays above 1.1750. A clean break above 1.1820 could accelerate gains toward the 1.1900 psychological level in coming sessions.
🔻 Bearish Alternative Scenario
If the pair fails to hold 1.1750, downside pressure could build, triggering a corrective move.
- Entry Zone: Below 1.1750
- Target 1: 1.1730
- Target 2: 1.1710
- Stop-Loss: 1.1765
- Note: This is a low-probability scenario unless U.S. dollar strength returns aggressively.
RSI & Momentum Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most reliable indicators used to measure momentum. Currently:
- RSI Value: Above 55
- Trend Direction: Rising
- Implication: Buyers have control
- Signal: Continuation of the uptrend likely
Fundamental Factors Driving EUR/USD
1. Eurozone Economic Recovery
Improved PMI figures, lower inflation pressures, and economic resilience in Germany and France are boosting confidence in the euro.
2. U.S. Dollar Weakness
The dollar is facing downward pressure due to dovish Fed commentary and softening inflation numbers, making the euro more attractive.
3. ECB Policy Outlook
The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its current rate policy, which supports medium-term euro stability.
4. Geopolitical Stability
Relative calm in global markets is allowing risk-on sentiment to favor the euro, especially against a retreating USD.
Key Technical Levels
📈 Resistance Levels:
- 1.1820: Immediate breakout level
- 1.1850: Next resistance zone
- 1.1900: Medium-term target if rally continues
📉 Support Levels:
- 1.1750: Pivot level (key to trend)
- 1.1730: Short-term support
- 1.1710: Deeper correction support
Suggested Trading Strategies
Intraday Strategy
- Focus on buying dips above 1.1750
- Watch for bullish candlestick patterns at key supports
- Use tight stop losses (~15-20 pips)
- Monitor RSI and MACD on the 15-minute chart for entry confirmation
Swing Strategy
- Build positions above 1.1750 with partial targets at 1.1820 and full exit near 1.1850
- Place stop-loss below the 1.1730 swing low
- Look for confirmation from daily MACD crossovers or EMA convergence
Position Strategy
- Wait for daily close above 1.1850 for confirmation of long-term bullish structure
- Target 1.1900 and higher over a few sessions
- Manage risk with wider stops (~40–50 pips)
EUR/USD Forecast Summary – July 1, 2025
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Pivot Point | 1.1750 |
| Preferred Bias | Long above 1.1750 |
| First Target | 1.1820 |
| Second Target | 1.1850 |
| Bearish Trigger | Break below 1.1750 |
| RSI Signal | Bullish |
| Volatility | Medium-High |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the EUR/USD forecast for July 1, 2025?
A1: EUR/USD is showing a bullish outlook above 1.1750 with targets at 1.1820 and 1.1850.
Q2: Is it a good time to buy EUR/USD now?
A2: Yes, technically it’s favorable to buy above 1.1750 as the breakout supports further upside.
Q3: What happens if EUR/USD falls below 1.1750?
A3: A break below 1.1750 could open the door to short-term weakness targeting 1.1730 and 1.1710.
Q4: What does RSI indicate in this setup?
A4: The RSI is rising and above 50, indicating bullish momentum and increased buying pressure.
Q5: What are the key resistance and support levels today?
A5: Resistance is seen at 1.1820 and 1.1850, while support lies at 1.1750 and 1.1710.
The EUR/USD pair is gaining strength as bullish momentum dominates above 1.1750. A confirmed breakout opens the path to 1.1820 and possibly 1.1850. Momentum indicators such as RSI validate the upward trajectory, while fundamental drivers including eurozone stability and U.S. dollar weakness further fuel the rally.
Traders should favor long positions above the pivot, but also watch for quick pullbacks to re-enter at better prices. Short setups are not recommended unless 1.1750 is lost with strong confirmation.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading forex carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a certified financial advisor before making trading decisions.
