Bearish Bias Builds Below 1.1605 for EUR/USD
On June 13, 2025, the EUR/USD pair is trading under pressure as the price struggles to maintain support above the pivot point of 1.1605. Bearish momentum has taken center stage, supported by technical indicators and a weakening Euro outlook.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has tilted toward the bearish zone, indicating sellers are gaining ground. With a preference for short positions below 1.1605, traders are eyeing downside targets at 1.1505 and 1.1480.
Intraday Technical Setup
- Pivot Point: 1.1605
Preferred Scenario:
- Sell below 1.1605
- Targets: 1.1505 and 1.1480
Alternative Scenario:
- Buy above 1.1605
- Targets: 1.1635 and 1.1660
RSI Insight:
The RSI is heading south, currently below the 50-level, confirming increasing downside momentum.
Price Action and Technical Chart Analysis
Following a rejection near 1.1605, EUR/USD is forming lower highs on the hourly chart. The bearish engulfing patterns on the H1 and H4 timeframes support the case for continued weakness. Volatility remains elevated, with downside pressure intensifying near 1.1550.
The RSI indicator, now below 48, suggests sellers are maintaining control. Price also remains below its 20-period moving average, adding to the bearish setup.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
| Level | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1660 | Resistance | Extended upside target |
| 1.1635 | Resistance | Short-term reversal area |
| 1.1605 | Pivot | Intraday decision point |
| 1.1505 | Support | First bearish target |
| 1.1480 | Support | Extended downside risk level |
Market Factors Influencing EUR/USD
1. U.S. Dollar Strength
Recent strength in the U.S. Dollar, driven by rising Treasury yields and hawkish Fed commentary, has weighed heavily on the Euro.
2. Eurozone Inflation Data
Slower-than-expected inflation figures out of the Eurozone have softened expectations of ECB rate hikes, weakening the euro.
3. U.S. Economic Momentum
Stronger-than-expected U.S. employment and retail data have fueled risk appetite for the greenback.
4. Geopolitical Risks
Uncertainty over trade and global diplomacy continues to affect sentiment in euro-dollar trading.
Trade Setup for June 13, 2025
Bearish Scenario:
- Entry: Below 1.1590
- Stop Loss: 1.1620
- Target 1: 1.1505
- Target 2: 1.1480
- Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.5
Bullish Scenario:
- Entry: Above 1.1620
- Stop Loss: 1.1595
- Target 1: 1.1635
- Target 2: 1.1660
- Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:1.5
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the pivot level for EUR/USD today?
A1: The pivot level is 1.1605.
Q2: Is EUR/USD in a bullish or bearish trend?
A2: The pair is currently in a bearish trend below the pivot.
Q3: What is the downside target for EUR/USD?
A3: Immediate downside targets are 1.1505 and 1.1480.
Q4: What technical indicators support the bearish view?
A4: RSI below 50, bearish candlestick patterns, and price under the moving average.
Q5: What could change the bearish outlook?
A5: A breakout above 1.1605 could shift momentum back to the bulls.
Q6: Is the RSI reliable for this setup?
A6: Yes, RSI divergence and downward trends are consistent with current market behavior.
Q7: What is the main resistance level to watch?
A7: Key resistance lies at 1.1635 and 1.1660.
Q8: How are fundamentals affecting EUR/USD?
A8: Strong U.S. data and weak Eurozone inflation are pressuring the euro.
Q9: Should traders go long or short?
A9: Preference is to short below 1.1605 unless the price breaks above.
Q10: What are the risks in trading EUR/USD today?
A10: Market volatility due to macroeconomic announcements and central bank comments.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Forex trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions
