EUR/USD Price Forecast June 30 2025
As we step into the final trading day of June 2025, the EUR/USD currency pair presents an encouraging bullish setup. With the pivot level at 1.1690, traders are eyeing continued upward movement as momentum builds. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) supports a bullish bias, and price action confirms buying interest above this level.
Whether you’re a scalper, swing trader, or just keeping tabs on EUR/USD for macroeconomic trends, this detailed price forecast provides you with actionable insights, key levels, and trading strategies for June 30, 2025.
Key Intraday Forecast Summary
- Currency Pair: EUR/USD
- Pivot Point: 1.1690
- Outlook: Bullish bias above pivot
- Preferred Scenario: Long above 1.1690
- Bullish Targets: 1.1750 and 1.1775
- Alternative Scenario: Short below 1.1690
- Bearish Targets: 1.1660 and 1.1635
- RSI Outlook: Favoring the bulls (above 50)
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Builds Bullish Momentum
The pair has steadily climbed from recent support levels as it eyes resistance zones near 1.1750. On multiple timeframes, EUR/USD has been forming higher lows, signaling the market’s appetite for more euro strength in the short term.
Preferred Bullish Scenario
If the EUR/USD holds above the pivot level of 1.1690, it sets the stage for a continued bullish run. RSI is above 50 and trending upward, supporting a momentum-based buy setup.
Trade Setup:
- Entry: Above 1.1690
- Take Profit 1: 1.1750
- Take Profit 2: 1.1775
- Stop Loss: 1.1665
- Confidence: Moderate to High
This trade aligns with intraday sentiment and technical indicators, particularly on the 1H and 4H charts.
Bearish Alternative Scenario
A break below 1.1690 would suggest a loss of bullish steam. In this case, look for a pullback toward 1.1660 and then 1.1635. A weaker RSI or bearish divergence would reinforce this view.
Trade Setup:
- Entry: Below 1.1690
- Take Profit 1: 1.1660
- Take Profit 2: 1.1635
- Stop Loss: 1.1710
- Confidence: Moderate
This scenario is less likely unless triggered by unexpected news or data releases.
RSI & Momentum Overview
The RSI indicator on major intraday charts is currently sitting between 55 and 60, confirming bullish momentum without being overbought. This is a good zone for trend continuation, especially if price remains supported above 1.1690.
Key Momentum Takeaways:
- RSI above 50 = Buy bias
- No divergence = healthy trend
- Volume supports buying pressure
Fundamental Drivers for EUR/USD – June 30, 2025
1. ECB vs. Fed Rate Expectations
Markets are increasingly pricing in a dovish pause from the Federal Reserve, while the European Central Bank (ECB) holds its hawkish tone. This interest rate divergence supports EUR/USD strength.
2. Eurozone Inflation Figures
Recent data showed sticky inflation in the Eurozone, keeping expectations alive for more ECB tightening or policy holding.
3. US Economic Reports
Pending home sales and consumer sentiment figures could influence USD strength. Weak U.S. data often weakens the dollar, pushing EUR/USD higher.
4. Geopolitical Stability in Europe
With fewer political shocks, investors are regaining confidence in the euro, further boosting its performance.
Chart Patterns to Watch
- Bullish Flag – Forms above 1.1690 on 1-hour chart
- Ascending Triangle – Targeting breakout above 1.1750
- No signs of divergence – Confirms momentum integrity
- Support Trendline – Holding since mid-June at 1.1665
Intraday Trading Tips for EUR/USD
📌 Day Traders:
- Focus on price action above 1.1690
- Watch M15 and M30 charts for breakout entries
- Confirm with RSI crossing 60 or MACD bullish crossover
📌 Swing Traders:
- Use 4H and Daily charts
- Look for daily close above 1.1750 to confirm medium-term strength
- Use wider stop losses and scale into positions on retracements
Weekly Technical Outlook
- Short-Term Trend: Bullish
- Medium-Term Bias: Bullish continuation toward 1.1800
- Long-Term Structure: Higher lows forming since late May
- Key Resistance: 1.1750 / 1.1775
- Key Support: 1.1660 / 1.1635
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the EUR/USD forecast for June 30, 2025?
A1: The pair is bullish above 1.1690 with near-term targets at 1.1750 and 1.1775.
Q2: Is EUR/USD expected to rise today?
A2: Based on current RSI and price structure, EUR/USD is likely to move higher, provided it stays above the 1.1690 pivot.
Q3: What happens if EUR/USD falls below 1.1690?
A3: A breakdown could lead to a move toward 1.1660 and potentially 1.1635, especially if supported by negative economic data.
Q4: How important is RSI in this analysis?
A4: RSI is a key confirmation tool today. It supports bullish continuation above 50, especially without divergence.
Q5: What key levels should traders watch?
A5: Support at 1.1690 is crucial, while resistance lies at 1.1750 and 1.1775. A break of either could define direction.
As of June 30, 2025, EUR/USD is positioned for a potential upward breakout, backed by a supportive RSI and solid technical structure. The key level to watch is 1.1690. Staying above it suggests a push toward 1.1750 and 1.1775, while slipping below may invite profit-taking or short positions.
Traders should stay flexible, monitor economic data, and adjust positions based on price action around these levels. As always, implement strict risk management and avoid overexposure during volatile sessions.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This content is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any currency or asset. Forex trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions.
