EUR/USD Technical Analysis – June 9, 2025
The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of renewed strength as it pushes higher above the key pivot level at 1.1380. With bullish momentum emerging on the back of RSI support and a weakening dollar narrative, traders are eyeing higher price zones as the euro stages a fresh advance.
This forecast dives deep into the technical setup, trading strategy, RSI dynamics, key price levels, and macroeconomic drivers for June 9, 2025, helping traders make informed decisions.
Key Levels at a Glance
| Level Type | Price |
|---|---|
| Pivot Point | 1.1380 |
| Resistance 1 | 1.1435 |
| Resistance 2 | 1.1455 |
| Support 1 | 1.1355 |
| Support 2 | 1.1335 |
Our Preference: Long Positions Above 1.1380
If the EUR/USD holds firm above the 1.1380 pivot, the bias remains bullish. The pair has the potential to climb further with immediate and extended targets:
- 🎯 Target 1: 1.1435
- 🎯 Target 2: 1.1455 (extension level)
This setup favors buying dips above the pivot, especially if the RSI and MACD indicators continue to support upward movement.
Alternative Bearish Scenario: Below 1.1380
A break below 1.1380 would shift sentiment back in favor of the dollar, opening the door to a short-term pullback toward:
- ⚠️ Support 1: 1.1355
- ⚠️ Support 2: 1.1335
Such a move could be triggered by stronger-than-expected U.S. data or hawkish Fed commentary.
RSI & Momentum Analysis
🔸 RSI Status:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently trending upwards and sits above the 50 mark, suggesting bullish momentum. A break toward overbought territory could indicate a new leg higher toward 1.1455.
🔸 MACD Indicator:
The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, confirming a bullish crossover. Histogram strength is building, signaling increased buying volume.
🔸 Bollinger Bands:
EUR/USD is pushing toward the upper band, which often precedes breakouts when backed by volume and RSI confirmation.
Fundamental Catalysts Affecting EUR/USD
Several macroeconomic factors are influencing the euro-dollar dynamics today:
🇺🇸 US Dollar Weakness
- Lingering speculation around a potential Federal Reserve rate pause is weighing on the greenback.
- Recent data suggests inflation cooling, limiting the Fed’s tightening potential.
🇪🇺 Eurozone Economic Resilience
- Stronger-than-expected German industrial output and retail sales have buoyed the euro.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) remains committed to stabilizing inflation, boosting investor confidence.
Bond Yield Spread
- The narrowing yield differential between U.S. and Eurozone bonds is offering support to the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD Weekly Summary
| Indicator/Metric | Signal |
|---|---|
| Trend Bias | Bullish |
| RSI Status | Rising |
| MACD | Bullish crossover |
| Fundamental Backdrop | Euro-positive |
| Breakout Target | 1.1455 |
| Risk Scenario | Below 1.1380 |
Strategic Trading Insights
- Entry Strategy: Enter long above 1.1380 with a tight stop at 1.1355 and take-profits near 1.1435–1.1455.
- Volume Watch: Confirm breakout with increased buying volume.
- News Risk: Monitor U.S. CPI and ECB statements closely this week.
- Risk Management: Use proper position sizing and risk-reward ratios.
- Trend Confirmation: Wait for confirmation on 1-hour or 4-hour charts before committing.
What’s Next for EUR/USD?
If the euro sustains momentum above 1.1380 and breaks 1.1455 with volume, the next leg could test 1.1500 psychological resistance—especially if the Fed adopts a more cautious tone.
However, a break below 1.1355 would invalidate the current bullish setup and bring short-term bears into play.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What is the intraday forecast for EUR/USD today?
Bullish above 1.1380, with upside targets at 1.1435 and 1.1455.
2. Is the RSI indicating strength in EUR/USD?
Yes, the RSI is trending upward and supports further bullish momentum.
3. When should I consider going short on EUR/USD?
Consider short positions below 1.1380, especially if price closes under 1.1355.
4. What macro factors are supporting the euro?
Improved Eurozone data and expectations of steady ECB policy are lifting the euro.
5. Could EUR/USD reach 1.1500 this week?
If 1.1455 breaks with strong volume and no hawkish Fed surprises, a move to 1.1500 is likely.
6. What upcoming events should I watch?
- U.S. CPI inflation report
- ECB speeches
- U.S. jobless claims
- Fed commentary
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Forex trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices and projections are based on current market conditions and may change rapidly. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. We do not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of any predictions made herein.
