EUR/USD Price Outlook July 9 2025
EUR/USD continues to trade under pressure, with the 1.1740 pivot turning into a firm resistance level. Amid mixed technical indicators and modest USD strength, short-term sentiment remains bearish unless price clears this key hurdle.
Contents
📍 Pivot Level: 1.1740
🔻 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Bias)
- Short below 1.1740
- Targets: 1.1685 → 1.1665
- Bias: Yes, choppy but favoring downward momentum
🔼 Alternative Scenario (Bullish Breakout)
- Long above 1.1740
- Targets: 1.1765 → 1.1785
- Bias: Secondary view; requires conviction
Indicators & Technical Context
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | Neutral, slightly bearish |
| ADX | Weak trend strength |
| Moving Averages | Not signaling strong ups or downs |
(Source: Investing.com technical data)
Price has failed repeatedly at 1.1740 and is trading near lower trend channel resistance. This confirms bearish structure unless bullish reversal emerges.
Key Factors to Watch
- US Dollar strength continues to apply pressure.
- Tariff announcements and USD sentiment remain relevant (e.g. recent delays, trade tensions).
- Mixed RSI and market sentiment suggest limited scope for strong rallies.
Trading Strategy Summary
✅ Short Setup (Primary Bias)
- Entry: Below 1.1740
- Targets: 1.1685, then 1.1665
- Stop-loss: Above 1.1755
- Risk Note: Use cautious position sizing due to expected choppiness
🔍 Long Setup (Alternative Scenario)
- Entry: Above 1.1740
- Targets: 1.1765 → 1.1785
- Stop-loss: Below 1.1730
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
- Why is 1.1740 crucial for EUR/USD?
It acts as resistance; price remains bearish while below. - What does the RSI signal today?
Slightly bearish, but largely neutral—no strong momentum signal. - What happens if price breaks above 1.1740?
Expect a potential rally toward 1.1765 and 1.1785. - What if EUR/USD moves below 1.1685?
It may open door to further declines toward 1.1660 or lower. - Should traders rely on chart patterns or fundamentals?
Combining both gives higher confidence in directional decisions. - Is this outlook intraday or longer term?
Primarily intraday focus; long-term traders should monitor broader macro trends. - Can fundamentals override bearish technical bias?
Yes—positive Eurozone data or USD weakness could shift momentum. - How volatile is EUR/USD expected to be today?
Expect moderate volatility, especially around trade announcements and macro updates.
Disclaimer
This forecast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not represent financial advice. Trading forex involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always perform your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
