Will Gold Sustain Below $3412?
Gold (XAU/USD) opens the trading day on June 17, 2025, facing a tough resistance level at $3412. After a volatile start to the week, bulls are struggling to push prices beyond this key technical barrier. Traders are now eyeing potential downside momentum, especially with a neutral RSI and weak macroeconomic tailwinds.
Today’s intraday strategy remains cautious as the market awaits fresh catalysts. Let’s break down the technical outlook, trading scenarios, and strategy for gold as we navigate today’s price action.
Intraday Technical Setup
- Pivot Point: $3412.00
- RSI Level: Hovering around the neutral 50 mark
Preferred Scenario: Short Positions
- Entry: Below $3412.00
- Target 1: $3375.00
- Target 2: $3360.00
Alternative Scenario: Long Positions
- Entry: Above $3412.00
- Target 1: $3430.00
- Target 2: $3450.00
RSI and Momentum Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently fluctuating around the 50-neutral zone. This indicates indecision in the market. While it’s not signaling strong bearish momentum, it also doesn’t provide bullish conviction. This reinforces the importance of watching price action near the $3412 resistance closely.
If gold fails to reclaim ground above $3412, it could trigger a downward move toward the $3375 and $3360 zones. A sustained move above $3412, however, would invalidate the bearish bias.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
Support Zones:
- First Support: $3375.00
- Stronger Support: $3360.00
Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $3412.00 (Pivot)
- Upper Barriers: $3430.00 and $3450.00
Price movement between these zones will dictate intraday sentiment. Traders should monitor for candlestick patterns or volume spikes near the pivot for confirmation.
Candlestick Patterns and Price Action
- Recent candles show rejection wicks near the $3412 zone, signaling seller pressure.
- Gold remains below key moving averages on the 4-hour chart, supporting the short-term bearish outlook.
- A break below $3390 could trigger accelerated selling, especially if paired with high trading volume.
Market Fundamentals Influencing Gold Today
- US Dollar Strength: Hawkish comments from the Fed continue to support the greenback, keeping gold under pressure.
- Interest Rate Expectations: Prospects of elevated U.S. interest rates reduce appeal for non-yielding assets like gold.
- Geopolitical Climate: Middle East tensions and weak Chinese industrial data offer some underlying support for gold.
- ETF Outflows: Reduced institutional demand in the form of lower gold ETF holdings contributes to downside risk.
Trading Strategy for June 17, 2025
- Watch the Pivot: Use $3412 as the primary directional signal.
- Risk Management: Place stops just above $3420 when shorting.
- Monitor RSI Divergence: A bullish divergence near support zones could hint at reversal.
- News Sensitivity: Be alert to surprise macro data or Fed commentary that can spike volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the pivot level for gold on June 17, 2025?
A1: The key pivot is $3412.00.
Q2: Is the trend bullish or bearish today?
A2: The trend is bearish below the $3412 resistance.
Q3: What are the short-term downside targets?
A3: Targets include $3375.00 and $3360.00.
Q4: When would the bearish bias be invalidated?
A4: A move above $3412 with strong volume could turn the bias bullish toward $3450.
Q5: What is RSI indicating today?
A5: RSI is neutral around 50, showing indecision.
Q6: Should I trade gold now?
A6: Only trade with proper stop-loss and confirmation near key levels.
Q7: What’s the best chart for intraday gold trading?
A7: The 1-hour and 4-hour charts provide clear trend setups.
Q8: Are macro events impacting gold prices today?
A8: Yes, U.S. dollar strength and rate outlook are key drivers.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading commodities like gold involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
