Gold Price Forecast July 1 2025
As we begin the second half of 2025, gold prices are showing bullish signals supported by both technical indicators and broader market sentiment. On July 1, 2025, gold trades above its critical pivot of $3296, with the RSI indicator reflecting continued upside momentum.
Traders and investors are positioning for a move toward $3335 and $3350, with a strong intraday bullish bias. Whether you’re trading gold intraday or looking for short-term setups, this forecast will give you the precise levels and context you need.
📌 Intraday Forecast Summary
- Instrument: Gold (XAU/USD)
- Pivot Point: $3296.00
- Bias: Bullish above pivot
- Preferred Scenario: Long above $3296.00
- Targets: $3335.00 and $3350.00
- Alternative Bearish Scenario: Short below $3296.00
- Targets if Bearish: $3274.00 and $3263.00
- RSI Outlook: Bullish (above 50)
Technical Analysis – Gold Eyes Higher Ground
After a strong finish to June, gold has continued to climb, breaking above key resistance levels. The price action above the $3296 pivot level is supported by a solid bullish structure and an RSI reading that reinforces upward momentum.
✅ Preferred Bullish Setup
Gold is in a favorable position for buyers as long as it remains above $3296.
- Entry Zone: Above $3296
- Take Profit 1: $3335
- Take Profit 2: $3350
- Stop Loss: $3280
- Confidence Level: High
- RSI Reading: 60+ (Bullish territory)
The RSI is neither overbought nor oversold, making this a healthy trend continuation scenario.
⚠️ Bearish Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks below the $3296 pivot level, sellers may regain control, pulling the price toward $3274 and possibly $3263.
- Entry Zone: Below $3296
- Take Profit 1: $3274
- Take Profit 2: $3263
- Stop Loss: $3310
- Confidence Level: Moderate
This could be triggered by stronger-than-expected U.S. data or sudden strength in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
RSI & Momentum Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the key indicators confirming this bullish move:
- Current RSI: 61 (bullish momentum)
- No Divergence: Price and RSI are in sync
- Momentum Outlook: Favorable for further gains
This aligns with recent volume spikes and bullish candlestick formations.
Fundamental Drivers Supporting Gold’s Upside
1. Geopolitical Uncertainty
Gold thrives during uncertainty. With ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade concerns, safe-haven demand is supporting the metal.
2. U.S. Economic Data
Recent soft U.S. data increases speculation of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, weakening the dollar and boosting gold.
3. Inflation Expectations
Though cooling slightly, inflation remains elevated globally. Investors use gold as a hedge, especially amid fluctuating fiat values.
4. Central Bank Buying
Several central banks, especially from emerging markets, continue accumulating gold as part of diversification efforts.
Weekly Outlook: What to Watch This Week
- Resistance Levels: $3335, $3350, $3368
- Support Levels: $3296, $3274, $3263
- Key Events This Week:
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
- FOMC Meeting Minutes
- Eurozone CPI
- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (later in the week)
Traders should watch how gold reacts to the U.S. data, especially regarding employment and inflation.
Chart Patterns to Monitor
- Bullish Flag Formation – Signals continuation
- Ascending Triangle – Potential breakout above $3335
- Golden Cross on 1H chart – Short-term bullish signal
- Volume Accumulation – Supporting upward price movement
All patterns point to continued strength unless invalidated by fundamental shifts or key pivot breaks.
Trading Strategies for July 1, 2025
📌 For Intraday Traders:
- Use 15-minute and 1-hour charts for entry points
- Wait for a candle close above $3296 for confirmation
- Use tight stops below $3280 to manage risk
📌 For Swing Traders:
- Watch the 4-hour chart for pullback entries
- Scale in on dips above $3296 with wider targets
- Look for confluence from RSI and MACD crossovers
📌 For Position Traders:
- Monitor weekly resistance at $3368
- Stay long as long as gold holds above $3270
- Watch USD Index (DXY) for inversely correlated signals
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the gold price forecast for July 1, 2025?
A1: Gold is expected to rise toward $3335 and possibly $3350 if it stays above the $3296 pivot level.
Q2: Is gold bullish or bearish today?
A2: Gold is currently bullish, with RSI and price action both favoring upside movement.
Q3: What happens if gold breaks below $3296?
A3: A break below $3296 may lead to a retracement toward $3274 or $3263.
Q4: Why is gold going up right now?
A4: Weak U.S. data, rising inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand are fueling gold’s momentum.
Q5: Should I buy gold now or wait?
A5: If price holds above $3296 and confirms with volume and RSI, a buy position could be favorable with targets at $3335 and $3350.
Final Thoughts
The gold market enters July 1, 2025 with strong bullish momentum. Above the critical pivot of $3296, the bias remains firmly in favor of the bulls. With targets at $3335 and $3350, traders have a well-defined roadmap.
As always, risk management is key. With economic data on deck and possible dollar fluctuations, staying alert to both technical and fundamental signals is crucial.
Gold continues to serve its purpose as both a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge, and July could see new highs if this momentum carries forward.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy/sell any financial instrument. Trading gold and other commodities involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always consult a certified financial advisor before making trading decisions.
