Silver Price Forecast July 1 2025
Silver (XAG/USD) enters July 2025 facing mounting selling pressure, as technical signals indicate a potential downside move. The price is currently struggling to stay above the key pivot level of $36.15, and bearish momentum is clearly building. With a weakening RSI and a failure to hold support, traders are increasingly favoring short positions.
In this detailed silver price forecast, we’ll analyze the intraday chart structure, pivot levels, RSI signals, trading scenarios, and market sentiment. This will help you make better-informed decisions whether you’re day trading silver or planning swing trades.
Quick Forecast Summary
- Instrument: Silver (XAG/USD)
- Pivot Level: $36.15
- Market Bias: Bearish below pivot
- Preferred Setup: Short below $36.15
- Bearish Targets: $35.65 and $35.40
- Bullish Alternative: Long above $36.15
- Bullish Targets: $36.40 and $36.60
- RSI Signal: Suggests downside momentum
Technical Analysis – Silver at a Turning Point
Silver’s price action suggests that the bears are taking control. The recent drop below the pivot level of $36.15 confirms the breakdown of short-term support and sets the stage for a move toward $35.65 and $35.40.
🔻 Bearish Scenario (Preferred)
Silver appears vulnerable to a correction as long as it trades under the $36.15 pivot.
- Entry: Below $36.15
- Take Profit 1: $35.65
- Take Profit 2: $35.40
- Stop Loss: $36.25
- RSI Trend: Downward, confirming momentum
This setup favors intraday or short-term swing traders aiming to capitalize on a corrective move.
✅ Bullish Alternative Scenario
If silver regains ground above $36.15 and holds, a short-term recovery may develop.
- Entry: Above $36.15
- Take Profit 1: $36.40
- Take Profit 2: $36.60
- Stop Loss: $36.00
- Confirmation: RSI back above 50
However, this scenario requires strong volume and a clear breakout to invalidate the bearish setup.
RSI & Momentum Insights
- Current RSI Reading: Below 50
- Momentum: Bearish
- Divergence: No bullish divergence detected
- Signal: Continued downside expected unless reversal occurs
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports the bearish narrative. A reading below 50 indicates sellers are dominant, while the absence of divergence confirms the reliability of the signal.
Key Market Drivers Impacting Silver
1. U.S. Dollar Strength
A stronger USD Index (DXY) continues to weigh on silver, as precious metals are inversely correlated with the dollar.
2. Interest Rate Outlook
Hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate hikes discourages investment in non-yielding assets like silver.
3. Industrial Demand Slowdown
Global economic uncertainty and slowing manufacturing data are reducing industrial silver demand, particularly from the solar and electronics sectors.
4. Inflation Expectations
With inflation moderating in key economies, safe-haven demand for silver has seen a pullback, contributing to its bearish bias.
Key Levels to Watch
🔺 Resistance Levels:
- $36.15 (Pivot)
- $36.40 (Minor resistance)
- $36.60 (Breakout resistance)
🔻 Support Levels:
- $35.65 (First bearish target)
- $35.40 (Second bearish target)
- $35.00 (Psychological support)
Breaks below $35.40 could open the door for an extended correction.
Trading Strategies for July 1, 2025
🕐 For Intraday Traders:
- Wait for a confirmed breakdown below $36.15
- Use RSI + MACD crossovers on 15-minute and 1-hour charts
- Set tight stops above $36.25 to manage risk
📅 For Swing Traders:
- Use a bearish bias until silver closes above $36.15 on the daily chart
- Look for a retest and rejection of $36.15 to confirm re-entry
- Take partial profits at $35.65 and trail the rest to $35.40
🧠 For Position Traders:
- Monitor global macro developments that could impact silver
- Remain cautious unless silver clears $36.60 with high volume
- Watch for opportunities to re-enter long if RSI reverses above 50
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the silver price forecast for July 1, 2025?
A1: Silver is expected to trade lower toward $35.65 and $35.40 if it remains below $36.15.
Q2: Is silver currently bullish or bearish?
A2: The current bias is bearish, supported by a falling RSI and resistance at $36.15.
Q3: What happens if silver moves above $36.15?
A3: A move above $36.15 may trigger a short-term rally toward $36.40 or $36.60.
Q4: Is RSI a reliable indicator for silver trading?
A4: Yes, the RSI is commonly used for momentum analysis. Today’s RSI signals bearish momentum in silver.
Q5: What should silver traders focus on today?
A5: Watch the $36.15 pivot level closely. A confirmed break below it strengthens the bearish setup.
Silver Traders on High Alert
Silver’s outlook for July 1, 2025, is leaning bearish. Price action below the $36.15 pivot level coupled with a declining RSI strongly supports downside movement. The bearish targets of $35.65 and $35.40 are well within reach if sellers maintain control.
While bulls may attempt a recovery above $36.15, they must overcome key resistance and show volume-backed conviction. Until then, traders should approach the market with caution, aligning strategies with the dominant trend.
Stay informed, stay disciplined, and manage risk carefully.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This forecast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading silver and other commodities involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
